Latest India in the Post-American Era

Peter Zeihan, a Straight Arrow News contributor, applies that question to India. Zeihan contends that a number of factors are working in India’s Favor and that Indians have a lot to look forward to in the twenty-first century.

The following is an excerpt from Peter’s “Zeihan on Geopolitics” newsletter, published on January 1:

Countries all over the world have benefited from the global order, but what happens when it collapses? Fortunately for India, it is one of the few countries that will avoid the majority of the suffering.

India obtains its energy from the nearby Persian Gulf (therefore avoiding an energy crisis), Indian agriculture is largely self-sufficient, and India is not overly reliant on trade. So, how does this seemingly bright Indian future appear?

With China collapsing, India (along with the rest of the developing world) will have to reclaim its manufacturing industry. This should be a relatively smooth transition due to India’s highly differentiated labour market. Even if it only supplies its domestic market, India will almost certainly become a manufacturing world power.

If you look at the attached graph, you’ll notice that India has a pure demographic pyramid at the top and then a sharp drop-off at age 35. This is due to industrialization, but it does indicate that they are experiencing a period of hypercharged economic growth. The question is, when will their good fortune run out?

India is a pocket power, which means it doesn’t have a lot of great “expansion” options, and its geography will limit economic and strategic growth. The geography that keeps India in place, however, also helps to keep others out.

As a result, India is very pro-India. meaning they are only concerned with number one and are willing to go out and take something if necessary. Fortunately for the Indians, there won’t be many people who can stop them. Fortunately for everyone else, we’re not quite there yet.